Has Omicron Rendered Vaccines Ineffective?

Early in the pandemic, when we realized that the CoV-2 virus was quickly producing mutated progeny, some of which were becoming more deadly and transmissible, some (including your humble blogger) warned that viral mutation could feasibly give rise to a variant that ignored immunity to previous iterations of the germ—in other words able to ignore the current vaccines. We have arrived—almost.

The so-called omicron variant partly avoids immunity conferred by the current vaccines (and by prior infection), meaning that we are seeing “break-through” infections in fully and partially  immune people. Popular news sources are running headlines declaring that vaccinated patients with COVID are filling hospital beds, leading many to leap to the conclusion that the vaccines have failed.

But, that is not fully accurate. Many vaccinated people are indeed getting infected with omicron, yet the vaccines are still quite effective, and much better than no vaccine. Let me explain.

First, about two-thirds of Americans are vaccinated—a definite majority of the population. This means that for a hypothetical virus that can fully evade immunity, there are more vaccinated than unvaxed viral “targets” available; meaning more vaccinated than unvaccinated people will be infected. The reality, however, is that the vaccines are still partly protective so that many vaccinated people still catch omicron COVID. Yet, compared to vaxed people, unvaccinated people remain at significantly greater risk of infection, hospitalization, and death. Numbers in my State of Wisconsin, bear this out.

Currently, 69% of the State adult population is vaccinated. According to the latest data* (as of January 15, 2022), out of 100,000 vaccinated people, 1573 caught COVID, 18.5 were hospitalized, and just under 4 died. In contrast, out of 100,000 unvaccinated people, 4,746 got infected, 176 were hospitalized, and 51 died. In other words, many more unvaccinated adults are feeling the effects of COVID, despite representing only 30% of the State population. Clearly, there were breakthrough infections in vaccinated people, but just as clearly, unvaccinated people fared way worse than they would have if they had the shot.

Yet, the headlines persist, proclaiming things like, “Similar numbers of vaccinated and vaccinated people hospitalized for COVID.”   Does this not show that the vaccines are no longer effective? Not at all. Because many more people are vaccinated and partly susceptible to the virus, more and more vaccinated people are showing up with infection, but at a much lower rate than unvaccinated people do. The graphic below illustrates how this works.

The benefits of the vaccines also are reflected in national and world-wide numbers. The US has one of the lowest vaccination rates among developed countries such as the UK, Canada, Norway, Denmark, etc. And despite omicron’s “milder” nature, which means it kills fewer people but still kills, the COVID death rate in the less vaccinated US is greater than seen in more vaccinated countries, attesting to the efficacy of the shots. Also, new hospital admissions in the US have now reached an all-time high and far exceeding hospitalization rates in better vaccinated countries. Current data from New York State shows that hospitalization among the unvaccinated is 14x higher than among fully vaccinated people.

All of this demonstrates how effective the vaccines remain at preventing infection, hospitalization, and death from omicron-driven COVID. Places with higher vaccination rates, such as the UK and Canada, are not experiencing an increase in base case rates of patients admitted to the ICU or deaths, even with omicron cases skyrocketing. The US is.

Get your Fauci boo boo.

*Note on Wisconsin State data sources: State data mentioned here are from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services, Public Health Madison and Dane County, and the Wisconsin Hospital Association as reported Jan 15, 2022 in the Wisconsin State Journal.