COVID-19 Is The Leading Cause Of Death And Accelerating

Reuters reports that last week 17,000 people died from COVID-19, far surpassing the death rates of the former top two killers, heart disease and cancer, which kill about 12,000 people each week. There were 15,500 COVID-19 deaths the previous week, so the post-Thanksgiving surge is growing.

The Dakotas and Iowa reported the most deaths per capita last week, while Rhode Island, Tennessee and Ohio had the highest number of new cases per capita. And according to the Johns Hopkins Tracker, the US has passed 300,000 total deaths.

Across the US, ~12% of CoV-2 tests came back positive, compared to 10.5% the previous week. 32 states had a positive test rate of 10% or more with the highest rates reported in Iowa and Alabama at 50%.

One conclusion from these data is that states that have the most lax restrictions, or most resistance to common-sense safe practices are bearing the brunt of the pandemic.

The Common Cold And Rumors Of False-Positive CoV-2 Tests

Rapidly spreading rumors on social media are claiming that the recent increase in coronavirus cases in many states is the result of false positive tests due to the common cold coronavirus.  

This is NOT accurate.

This rumor fails to distinguish between antibody testing vs testing for the virus itself. Both tests are being done and they are not carefully reported and distinguised in the press. Antibody tests are being done by epidemiologists who want to know how far and wide the virus has spread and to know how many people exposed to it do not get sick. The antibody test does not determine whether someone is infected.

“Antibody tests” looks for antibodies to a coronavirus in a drop of blood from a finger stick, and they simply determine whether or not you have been exposed to a coronavirus. They do not say that you are currently infected with it. And a positive antibody test could be due to the CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19, or it could be due to a coronavirus that causes about 30% of cases of the common cold. This test is NOT used to diagnose a current CoV-2 infection, it is just used to measure how many people have been exposed to the virus. Viral antibodies can linger for a few weeks after you clear the infection.

Positive antibody tests are not what health agencies are talking about when they say cases of COVID-19 are increasing, or when they say the incidence of infection is increasing.

When health experts say “cases are increasing,” they refer to cases of diagnosed COVID-19 illness. When they say that the incidence of infection is increasing, they mean that the number of people actively infected with CoV-2 is increasing. These are the numbers we should pay attention to when talking about the spread of the pandemic, not the antibody tests.

In contrast to antibody testing which just shows whether or not you have been exposed, health care folks detect active CoV-2 infections by taking a nasal swab that picks up virus budding from cells in your upper respiratory tract. They then use a highly specific and highly sensitive molecular test called RT-PCR, that your humble correspondent helped develop, to detect the presence of the viral genome.

This molecular diagnostic test, along with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 disease, are what people generally refer to when they say that the coronavirus is spreading.

Admittedly, the press too often does not distinguish whether they are talking about increasing antibody tests vs increasing clinical and molecular diagnoses. This contributes to some of the confusion leading people to leap to the unwarranted conclusion that it is a common cold, rather than CoV-2, that is spreading.

But, they are still wrong.